Commentaries
Q2 2024 | Concentrated Gains, Disperse Risks
Q1 2024 | Tip Offs and Tipping Points
Q4 2023 | Subtleties of Success and the Shadows of Risk
Q3 2023 | Creating a Risk Framework
Q2 2023 | Prolonged Phases, Promising Prospects
Q1 2023 | Finding Alpha in the Next Level
Q4 2022 | Forced Change, Ignite Progress
Q3 2022 | A Path to Break Tradition
Q2 2022 | The Cost of Inertia
Q1 2022 | Realizing Uncertainty
Q4 2021 | Indeterminate Values
Q3 2021 | Past Accepted, Surprises Expected
Q2 2021 | The Consequences Are Always Unintended
Q1 2021 | Intellectual Honesty – A Valuable Trait
Q4 2020 | A Wrinkle in Space and Time
Q3 2020 | The Best Lines Are Odd Non Sequiturs
Q2 2020 | The Illusion of Price, The Opportunity of Return
Q1 2020 | The Math of Loss & The Art of Calm
Q4 2019 | Why Hindsight Should Not Be Your 2020
Q3 2019 | The Fulcrum of Investing Reality – Return vs. Risk
Q2 2019 | Yesterday’s Headlines Not Necessarily Tomorrow’s Problems
Q1 2019 | Climbing Paradox Mountain
Q4 2018 | Rewarding An Investor For Discipline and Risk Management
Q3 2018 | An Investor’s Internal Trade War
Q2 2018 | Finding the Path of Least Resistance
Q1 2018 | How Risk and Volatility Are Different
Q4 2017 | An Equity Rally Surprising Even to Itself
Q3 2017 | Equity Risk Complacency
Q2 2017 | Act, Think, or Wait
Q1 2017 | Is Imagination Better Than Reality?
Q4 2016 | The Statistician and The Speculator
Q3 2016 | A False Sense of Calm
Q2 2016 | Redwood Commentary
Q1 2016 | Redwood Commentary
Market Snapshots
Job Openings & Stocks Decouple
Mortgages Drop, Stocks Pop
Easy Money Already Gone?
Positive Patterns, Lingering Risks
Concentration Concerns
Big Cash, Little Impact
Diversified or Just Duplicated?
Trend or Trouble
Intel's Investment Lesson
Rate Cut Winners
CPI Turns Negative
Record Performance Gap
Historical S&P 500 Returns in 2nd Half of Year
Peak Size, Peaked Returns
Inflation Leads, Interest Rates Follow
Interest Rate Expectations Impact on Stocks
Market Cap Concentration Cautions
Buy & Hold’s Lost Decades
Fed's Inflation Flashback
Peaks and Pauses
Shifting Results = Poor Results
Win by Not Losing
Good Earnings, Bad Trends
Navigating New Norms
Inflation Stuck Above Fed Target
Stocks Rise Despite Rate Cut Hopes Cooling
630 Days Inverted: Length Matters?
Emotional Investing Pitfalls
Stretched Valuations Warrant Caution
Cash Returns Almost as Much as Bonds Over Decade
Risk Reality Check
Frequency of "Fat Tails"
At Highs, But Risks Still Exist
Redefining "Core Bonds"
Public Failure
Unsustainable Outlier?
Tales In The Treasury Curve
Eggs in One Basket?
Can’t See Past Our Noses
Fourth Year In a Row
Unveiling Market Breadth
Reality Check
Post-Cut Conundrum
Why Pontificate?
Concentration Navigation
Tax Loss Opportunity?
Drawdown Doctrine
Cooling Job Market
The Unpredictable Path Ahead
Shaking Up Safety
Another Historical Drawdown?
Approaching Critical Support
Leveling the Playing Field
Expecting More Bond Volatility?
Inversion Indicator
Beyond Terminal Points
Reinvestment Risk?
Double-Edged Rate Rise
Treasury Trends Shift
Mistakes Remembered
Beyond the Noise: 2011 Downgrade
End of the Line?
Rarely Average
Heavyweights' Impact
Surging Yields Again
Divergent Journeys
Math of Loss
Something’s Got To Give
Bull Market or Bust?
Back In The Bubble?
Lost Decades
Tech's Takeover
The Total Picture
The Rate Wait
Strength or Sideways?
Falling Inflation?
Complacency or Progress?
Growth Comeback
Back To Normal?
How Much is Noise?
Yield Spread Spike
Late to the Party?
The Dotcom Redux
Bear Markets of the Past
Treasury Bills at 5%
Pressures of Public Markets
Breaking Out the New Year
Unemployment = Lagging Indicator?
Setbacks Set Up Comebacks?
Second Time Since WWII
How Useful Are Year-End Predictions? (2022 Edition)
A New Risk Era
Many VIX Upticks
Diversification Difficulties
Quality Comeback
Topping the Ten Year
Studying Historical Value
High Yield, Low Default
Pivot Pressures
Indication in International?
